{"id":170,"date":"2011-02-21T01:13:28","date_gmt":"2011-02-21T01:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.warlight.net\/?p=170"},"modified":"2014-12-19T03:12:00","modified_gmt":"2014-12-19T03:12:00","slug":"running-your-own-ladder-simulations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/2011\/02\/running-your-own-ladder-simulations\/","title":{"rendered":"Running your own ladder simulations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>EDIT: Instructions on how to run your own ladder simulation is now maintained on the WarLight wiki, here: <a href=\"http:\/\/wiki.warlight.net\/index.php\/Ladder_Ranks_and_Ratings#Run_your_own_Ladder_Simulations\">http:\/\/wiki.warlight.net\/index.php\/Ladder_Ranks_and_Ratings#Run_your_own_Ladder_Simulations<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--\nThere's a lot of good discussion going on about the ladder rating system.  This post will describe how you can run your own simulated ladder on your own computer and examine the results.  The process is a little bit complicated, so please post a reply if you get stuck and I'll try to help.\n\nThis can be used to answer questions like:\n\n\n\n<ol>\n\n\n<li>How would the ratings be different if I had won versus X instead of lost?<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n<li>How would the ratings change if I win or lose this in-progress game?<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n<li>How would the ratings be different if first-pick advantage was higher or lower?<\/li>\n\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2>Process<\/h2>\n\n\nHere's the process to re-produce the current rankings:\n\n\n\n<ol>\n\n\n\n<li>Download Bayeselo.exe from <a href=\"http:\/\/remi.coulom.free.fr\/Bayesian-Elo\/\">http:\/\/remi.coulom.free.fr\/Bayesian-Elo\/<\/a>.  (<a href=\"http:\/\/remi.coulom.free.fr\/Bayesian-Elo\/bayeselo.exe\">Direct link<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n\n<li>Download BayeseloLog.txt from the links below.  This file is automatically generated each time the ladder updates and contains all of the commands needed to re-produce the current ladder rankings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n\n<li>Run Bayeselo.exe.  You'll be left at a prompt that says \n\n<pre>ResultSet&gt;<\/pre>\n\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n\n<li>Copy the entire contents of BayeseloLog.txt to your clipboard, and paste it into the Bayeselo application.  (Note: To paste into a console app on windows, you can right-click on the titlebar, select Edit then Paste)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<\/ol>\n\n \n\nBayeseloLog can be obtained separately for each ladder.  Here are the links:\n\n\n\n<ul>\n\n\n<li>1v1 ladder:  <a href=\"http:\/\/warlight.net\/Data\/BayeseloLog0.txt\">http:\/\/warlight.net\/Data\/BayeseloLog0.txt<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n\n<li>2v2 ladder:  <a href=\"http:\/\/warlight.net\/Data\/BayeseloLog1.txt\">http:\/\/warlight.net\/Data\/BayeseloLog1.txt<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\nThis will produce rankings like the following:\n\n\n\n<pre>\r\n\r\nRank Name                      Elo    +    - games score oppo. draws\r\n   1 Waya                      303  457  341     1  100%   179    0%\r\n   2 Fizzer                    302  412  285     2  100%   115    0%\r\n   3 Soyrice                   218  297  240     2  100%    87    0%\r\n   4 FBGDragons                181  494  353     1  100%    52    0%\r\n   5 NoZone                    179  219  235     3   33%   220    0%\r\n   6 FBGMoDogg                 110  326  421     1    0%   218    0%\r\n   7 Ruthless                   83  410  281     2  100%   -99    0%\r\n   8 GuyMannington              65  311  312     2   50%    45    0%\r\n   9 deweylikedonuts            55  304  304     2   50%    59    0%\r\n  10 Perrin3088                 52  222  217     5   60%   -45    0%\r\n  11 sue                        50  457  340     1  100%   -69    0%\r\n...\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2>Making changes<\/h2>\n\n\nNow that you can re-produce the existing ladder rankings, you can try making changes and seeing how they affect the results.  Here's the process:\n\n\n\n<ol>\n\n\n<li>First, ensure you are on the \"ResultSet&gt;\" prompt.  If you're in \"ResultSet-EloRating&gt;\", enter a command of just \"x\" to go back up one.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n<li>Enter the command \"reset\" to clear the previous results.  This ensures you're starting from a clean slate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n<li>Modify BayeseloLog.txt depending on what you want to try (see below).<\/li>\n\n\n\n\n<li>Copy\/paste the modified BayeseloLog.txt back into Bayeselo.exe to see the results.  Compare to your previous run to see how they changed.<\/li>\n\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\nIn BayeseloLog.txt, you'll find two large sections - first, a bunch of addplayer commands, then a bunch of addresult commands.\n\n\n\n<h2>Players<\/h2>\n\n\nEach addplayer line corresponds to a player participating (or that has participated at one time) in the ladder.  They are also numbered, starting at zero and going up.\n\n\n\n<pre>\r\naddplayer Fizzer ;0\r\naddplayer Knoebber ;1\r\naddplayer FBGDragons ;2\r\naddplayer CuChulainn ;3\r\n...\r\naddplayer Perrin3088 ;7\r\n...\r\n<\/pre>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2>Results<\/h2>\n\n\n\nAfter the players, there are a bunch of addresult commands.  Each addresult corresponds to one finished ladder game.  In these numbers, we tell Bayeselo what two players fought eachother, who got first pick, and who won.  Let's examine this in detail.\n\n\n\n<pre>\r\naddresult 0 7 2\r\naddresult 1 4 2\r\naddresult 2 7 2\r\naddresult 3 7 0\r\naddresult 4 18 0\r\n...\r\n<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d32kaghj56y4ei.cloudfront.net\/static\/img\/addresult.png\" \/>\n\nBy changing these, you can simulate new wins\/losses or change existing games to see how they would affect the results.\n--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EDIT: Instructions on how to run your own ladder simulation is now maintained on the WarLight wiki, here: http:\/\/wiki.warlight.net\/index.php\/Ladder_Ranks_and_Ratings#Run_your_own_Ladder_Simulations<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=170"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1158,"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170\/revisions\/1158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/war.app\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}